Final Tally Comes In At 76.15%, More Than 9.4% Above Minimum For Passage
By Larry Freeman Updated 4/06
After a month to the day of waiting since polls closed for the March 5, Primary Election, voters, AUSD and the Alameda community at large got final word that AUSD’s Parcel Tax Measure will provide nearly $24 million in continued funding for Alameda Public Schools.
Had it failed, AUSD would have been faced with serious budget cuts, resulting in loss of program, likely increases in class sizes, position cuts and more.
For the next nine years, AUSD will be able to rely on Measure E revenues to keep it running at par with respect to this budget component of the complex and often uncertain financial support coming from the state and other sources.
The total of yes votes landed at 17,280 compared to just 5,412 for the No on E camp.
Seniors are automatically exempt from this parcel tax renewal which combined two former parcel tax measures, A and B-1 which both survived court challenges brought by a local tax critic and opponent.
More to follow on Measure E in coming days
See past stories on the standing of Measure E Below
Updated 3/26
The Alameda County Registrar of Voters has not officially sealed the deal regarding Measure E, as the vote count continues prior to the final certification determination, but the Yes on E vote climbed yet again, adding another1,760 votes to its total since 3/17. That number stands in stark contrast with just 410 new votes for the No on E camp.
This change represents a better than 4:1 margin of gain over the nay sector , as the Yes vote maintains a generally steady path to almost certain victory, barring any extraordinary, unforseen circumstances.
The total number of ballot cast and counted thus far stands at 22,648.
The Yes vote proportion trended almost uninterruptedly upward by various margins since the first results were released nineteen days ago. Its current lead now stands at almost 9.5 % above the minimum threshold of 66.6667% required for passage of the Parcel Tax Measure. In the latest count, however, the Yes lead dropped .25% from 76.4% to a still commanding lead of 76.15%.
That marks the first, though tiny, gain for the No on E sector since vote counts were first made public.
For No on E to move ahead at this point, it would need a net gain of 9,848 votes still to be counted above and beyond any new Yes on E votes that may be added.
That would require 4,446 more No votes than it currently has. The number of how many votes remainin to be counted is not known at this time, but the odds are not in the No on E’ side’s favor by a long shot.
A BACKLOOK AT EARLIER COVERAGE OF MEASURE E’S STANDING AND DETAILS
By Larry Freeman Updated 3/17
AUSD Parcel Tax, Measure E, continues its unabated march towards apparent victory as it added another 2,253 votes since last Friday’s count.
By contrast, the No on E numbers came in at about 1/3 of those for E, with a pick up of 732 votes, as of 2:40 pm on Monday, 3/17
That leaves Yes on E with another successive vote percentage gain which now stands at a commanding lead of over 76.4%, almost ten points above the minimum threshold needed for passage.
This most recent approval rate surpassed the all time high for school parcel tax passage in Alameda. Measure B-1 hit 74.5% in 2016.
With a total of 20,478 votes now counted, Yes on E holds 15,486 compared with 4,992 for those against.
The newest numbers compiled by The Alameda County Registrar Of Voters posted a total of just under 3,000 ballots counted since last week’s latest tally.
How many ballots remain yet to be counted is unknown, but the odds do not favor a reversal of fortunes barring any extraordinary turn of events, as the number of ballots left to total continues to dwindle.
See below for more general data analysis, information about Measure E, its significance and a look at the balloting over the past twelve days.
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(Story update from 3/14)
The latest count on AUSD’s Parcel Tax Measure E, after a week and a half since polls closed on 3/5, shows E passing by an even larger margin than it did initially and after three successive tallies since election day results were made public.
The latest tranche of ballots reported by The Alameda County Registrar Of Voters on 3/12 may have put E in lock position to prevail as the number of ballots remaining to be counted dropped by another 900 thus far.
As the number of votes left to be counted lessens, the mathematical probability of the No on E camp to overcome their large and growing deficit follows suit.
While the Registrar may take a few more weeks to finalize counting and certify the election results, AUSD posted a highly optimistic status report on 3/11 echoing the math in favor of E, posting: “With a 75.45% approval rating – the highest percentage of yes votes that an AUSD parcel tax has ever received – it would be nearly impossible to lose at this point.”
Two earlier measures, A in 2020 and B-1 in 2016, both passed, and, should E prevail, it will combine them and extend their revenue flow to AUSD at the same level for nine more years
B-l passed by a substantial margin, coming in at 74.2% but the more recent measure, passed during the onslaught of Covid, just squeaked by with a 67.1 % win. a razor thin margin of just .43% above the threshold required.
Of note in that election, is that the No segment of Alameda amassed more than double the number of votes it has gotten thus far in the 2024 election, coming in back then with a total of 9.588 votes. They came up short of sinking the measure by a tiny fraction of the vote, lacking just 145 votes out of over 29,000.
That is clearly not the case four years later.
Still, ever prudent, AUSD is not yet ready to take a victory lap, and issued a rather pro forma caveat. “We will hold off on making an official announcement until the Registrar of Voters ‘certifies’ the vote,” the online post stated.
The number of votes remaining has not been specified nor estimated by the County Registrar, but as of 1:47 pm on 3/14, no new count has been posted for over forty eight hours.
The vote total on Measure E now stands at 17,493, putting the No side in a deep hole as it would require a net gain of 7.402 votes, well more than it has now with 4,260 to overtake the Yes count.
The no faction’s percentage share has diminished with each successive vote tally, though it looked to still be in the game right after election day as Yes on E led by less than 4%.
As it stands now, the No folks are more than 8.9% behind attaining the 33.333% total they would need to defeat the measure which has far surpassed the minimum 66.6667 required for a win.
For more on the evolving back story of E’s rise to its prominent lead, please read below.
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Story Update From 3/11/’24 amending original post on 3/6
Monday’s latest vote count on AUSD’s Parcel Tax Proposal, Measure E, added another layer of cushioning for those favoring passage, as the Yes vote contingent added another 1.32% to their lead, substantially diminishing chances of the No vote being able to overtake it.
As of 10:15 a.m. on Tuesday 3/11, the yea votes added another 3,540 votes to reach a total of 12,259.
By contrast, the nays only added 941, putting the yes vote at a near 4:1 margin of gain from the latest count on Monday. That day’s count added another 4,481 votes in toto, pushing the total number of Measure E votes cast to 16,593
The Yes On Measure E, surged in one day based on last Friday’s count, picking up an additional 3.16% over Friday’s end of day total of 70.97%
The previous count on the Measure rang in at 8,979 in favor, versus the nay votes, which came in at 3,133.
While no on E votes grew by 1,018 in the Friday 3/8 count, the share of yes votes nearly tripled that, growing by 3,808 from the prior day’s total.
That shows the Yes on E count growing consistently in proportional numbers over the opposition.
With all 14 precincts reporting, votes in favor of passage now hold a better than 8.7% edge over votes to reject the measure.
“The trend is looking good, and we remain cautiously optimistic that Alameda voters approved this crucial measure. But we won’t announce the final result until all of the votes are in,”said AUSD Superintendent Pasqaule Scuderi in a statement on Friday morning, before the day’s count was released by the Country Registrar Of Voters Office.
Monday marked the fifth straight day of gains for the “yes” on E camp.
By contrast, school parcel tax measures for Albany Unified School District and Berkeley Unified School District currently stand at 78.23% and a resounding 87.23 %, underscoring the fact that Alameda still holds a larger anti-tax faction compared to those cities.
As with Alameda, those other locales’ more recent totals also show a consistent net gain in yes vote percentages which suggests that their yes voters got their choices in before election day. (mail in votes do not get counted until after the polls close) Whether or not that turns out to also be the case in Alameda remains to be seen.
Assuming that all Alameda Polling Place votes have been counted, the latest numbers also show that the Yes On E “get out the vote” effort effectively turned out the mail in ballot community.
While the raw number of a 75.45% “yes” on E lead seems to represent a resounding victory for the tax measure , California law sets the threshold for passage of parcel tax measures at 66.6667%, so what is normally considered a strong super majority victory in conventional majority voting does not apply in this type of situation.
Though a gain in yes on E votes over a five day period is still only a short term trend that is not guaranteed to stay steady in days and weeks to come, this latest growth in the lead makes it increasingly tougher for the no on E votes to overtake it, since, as the vote count continues, the number of uncounted ballots shrinks.
The Registrar’s office, had a very busy day on Friday, as it tallied up an additional 4,826 new votes, the vast majority of which were comprised of mail in, absentee or provisional ballots.
That number substantially reduced the number of votes still to be counted and is about 3/4 of the total vote count posted on the day after the polls closed.
The no on E vote count would need, at this time, a net gain of 8,446 votes above and beyond any yes on E votes still to be counted.
Overcoming that deficit for the “no” on E segment looks unlikely as every new yes on E vote negates the impact of any new no on E vote.
The number of ballots remaining is, of course, unknown at this time and AUSD does not have any estimates. A request to the County Registrar Of Voters to provide one is pending.
If the four day yes on E pattern of gain holds, AUSD will preserve its local parcel tax revenue stream, which comes from two prior parcel tax measures that constitute about $23 million, or about 15% of AUSD’s total budget.
That will provide one pillar of stable, predictable revenue for nine years until the measure sunsets.
Should it pass, E will also not raise current school parcel taxes in Alameda, but it will also not increase funding to the district.
For more on the details of Measure E, what it will pay for, its backstory, the stance of the opposition, accountability matters and more, click the link below to “AUSD’S Near Term….:
(MAIN BODY OF VOTE RESULT STORY CONTINUES BELOW)
The vote count could go on for as much as four to five more weeks, so it may be a while before E’s ultimate fate is determined, and the vote is certified by the County Registrar’s Office. The latest tally of just over 74% is almost identical to the final total attained when an earlier Alameda School Tax Measure, B-1, which E includes and renews.
Steve Kellner of Alameda’s Parcel Tax Oversight Committee said on Wednesday 3/6 that he estimates that 50% or more of the vote still needs to be counted, and that in low turnout elections as this, it is mostly voters “with stronger passions are the ones that turn out.”
Whether that means those more passionate for or against is not known, but his assessment is that the vigorous “Yes On E” campaign had a good chance of getting out the vote in favor. There was no organized opposition campaign and the “No On E” contingent mostly made their counter argument in the voter’s guide (see 3/1 story noted above)
“I’m cautiously optimistic,” he said.
“I’d rather be where we are now, but we don’t want to be celebrating just yet.”
HOW TO ACCESS THE LATEST INFORMATION ON TUESDAY’S VOTE
To keep track of Measure E’s standing, and all other races or initiatives, and to see the latest as mail-in, absentee and provisional ballots are counted and registered, click on the following link.
https://www.acgov.org/rovresults/251/
Once on the page, (“Presidential Primary Election Unofficial Final Results; March 05, 2024”) scroll down to “Measures” , click on that bar and then click on “Measure E. at the bottom of the stack.
